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☆ How the Fed’s quest for transparency made markets more volatile
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-11 | by ( Merritt Enright | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Markets typically respond to Fed comments with price swings in either direction, and recent research shows they are particularly reactive to Powell. And given the Fed's "data-dependent" approach, the baseline can change rapidly as new economic reports are released. "So now we're stuck with a system where there's only one view, there's only one outlook, it's a baseline outlook. And there's really no way to understand the Fed's thinking about where are the risks." Watch the video above to learn more about how the Fed's busy speaking schedule can create market volatility and how it balances transparency with market impact.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Andrew Levin, —, Levin, Ben Bernanke Organizations: Fed, Federal, Center for Economic Policy Research, Dartmouth College, Federal Reserve Locations: Federal, what's

☆ David Zervos: Blame traders living in rate cut la-la land — not the Fed — for recent market turbulence
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( David Zervos | Jefferies Chief Market Strategist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

This year the rate markets have come back to a more sensible reality after flirting with the la-la land of 7 cuts. And all the while, the more sensible equity markets have paid only fleeting attention to their rate brother's whining. As a guy who was brought up in the fixed income and currency markets, I'm increasingly finding more sensibility in the equity markets as I head into later stages of my career. Having five-year inflation expectations (as measured by the 5-year breakeven inflation rate) never ramp higher while cumulative inflation surged around 20% since January 2021 is a testament to his stalwart success. There have been no fumbles at the Fed so far during a protracted fight to ensure anchored inflation expectations and long term price stability.

Persons: Consensonomics, Jerome Powell's, Jay, Janet Yellen's, Janet, Stanley Druckenmiller, I'm, David Zervos Organizations: Equity

☆ There are 4 big factors to watch that could bring turmoil to financial markets, research firm says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-03 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Stocks and the economy look strong but there are four factors that could pose a problem, Capital Economics said. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and high interest rates are big risks to markets. A depreciation of the Chinese yuan and soaring US debt are also the two factors investors need to watch. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Thirdly, with the rising value of the Chinese yuan, any depreciation could trigger currency market volatility elsewhere.

Persons: —, Ruben Gargallo Abargues, Jonas Goltermann, Wednesday's, Goltermann, Bill Gross Organizations: Economics, Service, Capital Economics, Brent Locations: Israel, Treasuries

☆ Yen gives up ground vs dollar following surge on suspected intervention
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

An attendant holds a sample of newly-designed Japanese 10,000 yen banknote, with three-dimensional holographic technology to prevent forgery, for a photograph at the National Printing Bureau Tokyo plant in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, June 28, 2023. The yen gave up ground in early trade on Thursday, reversing direction after a sudden surge against the dollar overnight that traders and analysts were quick to attribute to intervention by Japanese authorities. The dollar was 0.9% higher at 155.98 yen as of 0100 GMT, retracing about half of its late Wednesday surge from around 157.55 to exactly 153 over a period of about 30 minutes. "The 'sneak attack' element really is the MOF (Japan's Ministry of Finance) looking to punish speculators and send a warning about shorting the yen." That helped lift the dollar to a 34-year peak of 160.245 yen on Monday and also spurred a sharp reversal which official data suggested was due to Japanese intervention totalling about $35 billion.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Masato Kanda, Kyle Rodda, Sterling, Powell, Jack Mclntyre Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Federal Reserve, Reuters, Capital.com, Japan's Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan, Brandywine Locations: National Printing Bureau Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Melbourne

☆ Wall Street is confused and divided over how many times the Fed will cut rates this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Wall Street reacted Thursday to this week's Fed meeting, with forecasts scattered across a range of outcomes for where monetary policy heads next. Most economists for the biggest forecasting firms expect the central bank to lower benchmark interest rates sometime later this year. Goldman left in place its call for two rate cuts this year of a quarter percentage point each, with one in July and the other in November. "If inflation comes in stronger than in our baseline, we would expect the first rate cut to be postponed to December," he wrote. For 2025, we continue to expect four rate cuts."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Powell, Goldman, Andrew Hollenhorst, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner, Marc Giannoni, Michael Gapen, Michael Bloom Organizations: Fed, Futures, Group, Citigroup, Barclays, Bank of America

☆ Fed might cut once in September, but keeping rates steady through summer: Cantor Fitzgerald CEO
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed might cut once in September, but keeping rates steady through summer: Cantor Fitzgerald CEOHoward Lutnick, Cantor Fitzgerald CEO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk today's FOMC decision, the state of the economy, what he expects for the rest of the year, and more.

Persons: Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick

☆ KBW CEO Tom Michaud reacts to Fed decision's impact on banks and the inflation battle
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailKBW CEO Tom Michaud reacts to Fed decision's impact on banks and the inflation battleTom Michaud, KBW CEO, joins 'Fast Money' to talk the impact of today's FOMC decision to leave rates unchanged and how that will impact banks, inflation, the economy, and more.

Persons: Tom Michaud

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard LutnickHoward Lutnick, Cantor Fitzgerald CEO, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk today's FOMC decision, the state of the economy, what he expects for the rest of the year, and more.

Persons: Cantor Fitzgerald, Howard Lutnick Howard Lutnick

☆ The economy needs to take one of these 2 paths before the Fed cuts interest rates, Powell says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The labor market has continued to be strong, dampening any urgency the Fed might have to cut rates. AdvertisementThe Fed's decision to hold rates steady prompted some pushback from Democratic lawmakers who are worried that continued high rates will hurt Americans. "The Fed must remember its dual mandate and avoid keeping these rates too high for too long," Boyle said. And he won't risk easing up on the Fed's restrictive policy too early. Advertisement"We believe it is restrictive, and we believe over time it will be sufficiently restrictive," Powell said.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Powell, We've, we're, Julia Pollak, Brendan Boyle, Boyle, he's Organizations: Service, Federal, Market Committee, Business, Fed, Democratic, Rep

☆ The market needs to price in the possibility of more rate hikes: Richard Bernstein's Contopoulos
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market needs to price in the possibility of more rate hikes: Richard Bernstein's ContopoulosMichael Contopoulos, Richard Bernstein Advisors, joins the 'Fast Money' table to talk the FOMC's rate decision today, the state of the economy, if stagflation is a problem right now, and more.

Persons: Richard Bernstein's Contopoulos Michael Contopoulos, Richard Bernstein, stagflation Organizations: Richard Bernstein Advisors

☆ Stock market today: US stocks fall ahead of Fed decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Markets are widely expecting the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged. The outlook for rate cuts this year continues to sour, with traders pricing in just one or two cuts by December. AdvertisementUS stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday as traders waited for the Federal Reserve to announce its next move on interest rates. Investors have also dialed back their outlook for rate cuts throughout the year. At Wednesday's meeting, market watchers expect Powell to formally confirm this shift from the FOMC, which had previously forecast three rate cuts this year," Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro said in a note.

Persons: Stocks, —, Richard Flynn, Charles Schwab, Powell, Alex Kuptsikevich, FxPro Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Open Markets, Traders

☆ The Fed once again holds interest rates steady — with cuts expected later this year
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-01 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe nation's central bank offered no surprises in its latest interest rate decision. On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee announced that it would be holding interest rates steady, continuing the pause on rates that began in September. While the FOMC projected three interest rate cuts for 2024, inflation is not quite where the Fed needs it to be. "It looks to me like he's trying to lower interest rates for the sake of maybe getting people elected," Trump said. "Inflation has continued to run hot and there is no compelling need for the Fed to cut interest rates until they're comfortable with where inflation is headed," Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for Bankrate, said in a statement.

Persons: —, It's, Jerome Powell, Powell, Donald Trump, Trump, Greg McBride Organizations: Service, Federal, Market Committee, Federal Reserve, Business, Fox News, Street Journal, Trump, Fed Locations: Washington

☆ Worker pay rose more than expected in Q1 in another sign of persistent inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Employee compensation costs jumped more than expected to start the year, providing another danger sign about persistent inflation, while consumer confidence hit its lowest level in nearly two years. The employment cost index, which measures worker salaries and benefits, gained 1.2% in the first quarter, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The Fed watches the ECI as a significant measure of underlying inflation pressures. State and local government workers saw their compensation costs rise 4.8%, down just narrowly from the same period in 2023. The Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 97, a decline of 6.1 points that was below the Wall Street estimate for 103.5.

Persons: Dow Jones, Dana Peterson, Peterson Organizations: Labor Department, Dow, Fed, Committee, Conference Locations: State

☆ Here's everything to expect when the Fed wraps up its meeting Wednesday
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Recent commentary from policymakers and on Wall Street indicates there's not much else the committee can do at this point. But they're still hopeful that they will be in a position to cut rates later." Markets actually have held up pretty well since Powell made those comments on April 16, though stocks sold off Tuesday ahead of the meeting. Some on Wall Street, though, are still hopeful that inflation data will show progress and allow the central bank to cut. The Wall Street bank's economists are preparing for the possibility that the Fed could be on hold for longer, particularly if inflation continues to surprise to the upside.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Kent Nishimura, Guy LeBas, Janney Montgomery Scott, they're, Powell, We've, there's, specter, LeBas, There's, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, —, Donald Trump, Goldman, Mericle Organizations: Banking, Housing, Urban Affairs Committee, Getty, Federal Reserve, Federal, Market Committee, Fed, Dow Jones, Department, Labor Department, Republican

☆ Stock market today: Dow drops 570 points to end worst month of 2024 as traders brace for Fed decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks dropped sharply as investors readjusted rate cut expectations ahead of the latest FOMC meeting. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementUS stocks plunged on Tuesday as investors got another dose of inflationary data ahead of the Federal Reserve's next policy decision. For the Fed, that adds even more restraint on its ability to cut interest rates this year, and futures markets now expect only one rate cut in December. AdvertisementThe equity decline that followed only deepened April's market losses, making it the first month of 2024 to end in the red.

Persons: Stocks, —, Bill Adams, Brent Organizations: Service, Federal, of Labor Statistics, Comerica Bank Locations: McDonald's, Israel, Here's

☆ Sorry, America, it's looking like higher interest rates are going to stick around longer
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( Ayelet Sheffey | Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Federal Reserve is expected to once again hold interest rates steady on Wednesday. Some predictions also do not forecast any interest rate cuts until the second half of the year. AdvertisementIt's probably still not time for the nation's central bank to cut interest rates just yet. AdvertisementGiven that inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, it's looking like rate cuts might not come until the second half of 2024. "Inflation has continued to run hot and there is no compelling need for the Fed to cut interest rates until they're comfortable with where inflation is headed."

Persons: Powell, —, It's, Julia Pollak, Jerome Powell, Gregory Daco, Greg McBride Organizations: Federal, Service, Fed Locations: Washington

☆ Two rate cuts might not be enough, warns Wells Fargo’s Michael Schumacher
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo rate cuts might not be enough, warns Wells Fargo’s Michael SchumacherMichael Schumacher, Wells Fargo, joins 'Fast Money' to talk what to expect from this week's FOMC meeting, if any rate cuts are on the table, the state of inflation, and more.

Persons: Wells Fargo’s Michael Schumacher Michael Schumacher, Wells Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ Dollar a tad softer as markets wait for Fed
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Japan's yen was at 158.05 per dollar, up nearly 0.2% in quiet trading with Tokyo markets closed for the first of the country's Golden Week holidays. "The bar is pretty high for a sustained hawkish surprise, which would in turn lift yields," he said, referring to the Fed. "The BOJ disappointment might be transcribed onto the FOMC insofar that they may be more undecided than decidedly hawkish." The Fed is seen holding its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.25%-to-5.5% at the April 30-May 1 meeting. Markets are also on guard for any intervention by Japanese authorities to contain the yen's nearly 11% fall this year.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Vishnu Varathan, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Bank of, Mizuho Bank, Market Committee Locations: Japan, Tokyo, Bank of Japan, Asia, Singapore

☆ Stock market today: US stocks edge higher ahead of earnings deluge and Fed policy meeting
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks jumped on Monday, extending gains from last week as investors digest Q1 earnings results. Also on the radar is this week's Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate decision and the April jobs report. Amazon and Apple will headline this week's earnings results, and an additional 170 S&P 500 companies are expected to report their results throughout the week. So far, about half of S&P 500 companies have reported earnings results. Apart from earnings, investors will be paying close attention to the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on Wednesday.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell Organizations: Apple, Reserve, Service, Federal, Macquarie Locations: Fundstrat, Here's

☆ The Fed is focusing on 'flawed' data and keeping rates high will result in a big policy mistake, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Yuheng Zhan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Read previewThe Federal Reserve's fixation on a streak of "flawed" data to justify keeping interest rates higher for longer is bound to spark a policy mistake, according to top economist David Rosenberg. "The Fed seems to be focusing not just on flawed data, but on headlines only. Finally, he noted that the Fed's long-term view of the economy as still hot based on non-farm payroll data was dashed by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and Business Employment Dynamics. Rosenberg pointed out that the payroll report may be exaggerating actual employment by 70,000 per month. Meanwhile, BED data indicated a 192,000 drop in private employment in Q3 of last year, whereas private job payroll data reported a significant 521,000 increase in that time.

Persons: —, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, it's Organizations: Service, Business, Fed, Quarterly, Employment Dynamics

☆ Why economists who originally expected multiple deep rate cuts in 2024 now say a hike is possible
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

From deeps rate cuts to a potential rate hike in 2024, one firm has changed its forecast in a big way. Macquarie said the resilient economy means potential interest rate cuts won't happen until 2025. Assuming the central bank moves the federal funds rate down by 25 basis point increments, that would equate to nine interest rate cuts just this year. AdvertisementThat lack of economic weakness has led to a stark shift in interest rate forecasts, with even the Federal Reserve suggesting that its initial projections of three interest rate cuts this year could dwindle to one rate cut or even none. That could be a double whammy for a stock market that had been largely fixated on interest rate cuts this year.

Persons: Macquarie, —, David Doyle, Neil Shankar, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Macquarie, Federal Reserve, Fed, UBS

☆ It's going to be a massive week for the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

It's a big week for the stock market with a deluge of economic data set to be released. AdvertisementIt's going to be a massive week for the stock market as investors prepare for a deluge of economic data and corporate earnings results. Raymond James' chief investment officer Larry Adam highlighted the top five things to watch this week that could have a big impact on stock market prices. Finally, the April jobs report set to be released on Friday will be closely watched by investors. The jobs report will provide an update on the strength of the labor market," Adam said.

Persons: Raymond James, —, Larry Adam, Adam, Jerome Powell, Powell, Treasurys Organizations: Fed, Service, Treasury Department, Treasury, Apple, Investors, ISM Manufacturing, Manufacturing

☆ Stock market today: Indexes extend gains ahead of big week for earnings and the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Investors are preparing for the busiest week of earnings, with Amazon and Apple set to report. On the economic front, investors will be paying attention to the Fed meeting and jobs report. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementIt's a big week ahead for the stock market, and so far investors are heading into it feeling upbeat as equity indexes extended their gains from last week in early Monday trades. Economists expect 250,000 jobs to have been added to the economy in April, down from the big March figure of 303,000 jobs adds.

Persons: —, Raymond James, Larry Adam, Jerome Powell Organizations: Amazon, Service, Federal

☆ The consumer overall is still healthy, says BofA's Ohsung Kwon
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe consumer overall is still healthy, says BofA's Ohsung KwonOhsung Kwon, BofA Securities Equity & Quant strategist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk what to expect from the FOMC tomorrow, the case for dividend stocks and how the sector benefit from high rate environments.

Persons: BofA's Ohsung Kwon Ohsung Kwon Organizations: BofA Securities Equity

☆ Here are 5 sectors of the market that are working and the stocks that stand out in each
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-28 | by ( Jim Cramer | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell met with the press after the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which was pretty fraught. Data centers If there is the whiff of a data center or anything in one, the stock goes higher. It's why Meta stock is a buy a tad lower as stocks tend to revisit those kinds of declines. I worry about Club stock Stanley Black & Decker for this reason, but the dividend will keep it propped up for now. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.

Persons: what's, Jerome Powell, Powell, Powell isn't, Voltaire, Vertiv, Eaton, Meta, It's, jetsam, Darius Adamczyk, Vimal, Stanley Black, Decker, Azek, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Charlie Scharf, Wells Fargo, Chipotle, that's, Johnson, Jensen Huang, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Scott Mlyn Organizations: Federal, Market, Broadcom, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia, Travel American Express, Raytheon, GE Aerospace, Royal, AAR, Honeywell, Southwest Airlines, Housing, Stanley, JPMorgan, Procter, Gamble, Colgate, Merck, Bristol, Myers, PepsiCo, Energy, Coterra Energy, Diamondback, drillers, CNBC Locations: California, Royal Caribbean, Delta, Devon

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